Lub zog tshiab kev lag luam tsheb nyiaj pab lag luam yuav poob, kev lag luam kev sib tw yuav ua kom ntau dua
Ib lub xov tooj ntawm lub zog tshiab cov tuam txhab ua lag luam tau qhia tawm lawv cov kev ua tau zoo 2018, thiab cov txiaj ntsim ntawm cov tuam txhab muaj feem xyuam xws li cov tsheb npav tshiab thiab kev siv hluav taws xob hluav taws xob. Analysts hais tias ntau tshaj lossis muaj homogenization hauv hluav taws xob, khoom siv anode, thiab electrolytes ntawm lub cev yuav ua rau kev sib tw ntxiv yav tom ntej. Ping An Bank (11.000, 0.00, 0.00%) Tsheb thauj mus los Logistics nyiaj txiag thiab Ping An Securities Research Institute qhov tseeb qhia tawm ntawm "New Energy Automotive Industry Blue Book (2018)" tias lub zog tshiab kev lag luam tsheb muaj kev qeeb sai, mus rau qhov zoo Lub caij nyoog tseem ceeb yuav nce tuaj rau lub sijhawm ntawm kev sib haum xeeb tom qab qhov nyiaj pab tawm tom qab xyoo 2020. Cov kev pabcuam pheej yoojyim yuav coj qhia kev lagluam tshiab rau kev lag luam kev ua lag luam thiab kev sib txig sib luag.
Ntxiv kev sib tw
Lub zog tshiab tsheb muag tsheb muaj xws li tsheb, peb hluav taws xob (hluav taws xob, hluav taws xob, hluav taws xob tswj), cov khoom siv roj teeb, cov khoom siv rau sab nraud, cov khoom siv roj teeb, thiab cov chaw them nyiaj.
Hanrui Cobalt (63.140, 0.23, 0.37%) xav tias net profit attributable shareholders rau xyoo 2018 kom nce 56% -67% dhau xyoo dhau los. Hais txog qhov laj thawj tseem ceeb rau qhov kev ua haujlwm nce siab, lub tuam txhab tau hais tias qhov kev thov rau ternary lithium roj teeb muaj ntau zog, thiab qhov muag thiab qhov nqi ntawm cov khoom cobalt tau nce. Tsis tas li ntawd, lub tuam txhab kev peev txheej tau tsim tawm ntxiv, tsav muag kev loj hlob.
Zhongtong Bus (5.460, -0.05, -0.91%) xav tias net profit attributable rau lub tuam txhab niam txiv xyoo 2018 yuav tsum 25 lab yuan rau 37.5 lab yuan, down 80.39% rau 86.93%. Lub tuam txhab tau hais tias nws txoj kev ua haujlwm hauv xyoo 2018 poob qis xyoo-rau-lub xyoo, feem ntau vim hais tias txoj cai pab txhawb rau cov tsheb npav tshiab tseem pheej tsis kam thiab cov lag luam muag tau poob. Tib lub sij hawm, qhov kev txhawb nqa tsheb thauj mus los tshiab tshiab tsis yog nyob rau hauv qhov chaw, ua rau muaj kev nce nqi hauv kev siv nyiaj.
Xiav dej hiav txwv Huateng (10.520, 0.06, 0.57%) xav kom cov nyiaj tau txais txiaj ntsig rau tus tswv hauv xyoo 2018 yuav tsum 22 lab nyiaj rau 32 lab yuan, nqis 75.05% -82.85% los ntawm lub xyoo dhau los. Vim hais tias vim li cas rau kev poob qis hauv kev ua tau zoo, lub tuam txhab tau hais tias lub tuam txhab tshiab tshiab coj mus muag tsheb thiab kev muag khoom tau pom ib qho kev loj hlob tsis zoo, thiab kev sib tw ua lag luam sib zog. Lub tuam txhab cov khoom xaj rau kev siv zog tshiab khoom muaj nqis poob qis. Vim tias tus nqi siv nyiaj ntawm OEMs, tus nqi ntawm cov tshuab hluav taws xob tswj lub cev tau txuas mus ntxiv, thaum tus nqi ntawm qee cov khoom hluav taws xob ntawm lub tuam txhab tau nce.
Los ntawm qhov teeb meem tam sim no, muaj ntau dhau heev lawm lossis homogenization hauv hluav taws xob tswj, cov ntaub ntawv tsis zoo ntawm electrode thiab electrolytes ntawm lub cev, thiab kev sib tw yuav ntxiv zog rau yav tom ntej.
"New Energy Automotive Industry Blue Book (2018)" ("Blue Book"), uas tau qhib tshiab los ntawm Ping Ib Lub Tsev Haujlwm Saib Xyuas Kev Lag Luam thiab Logistics thiab Ping An Securities Research Institute, qhia tias lub zog tshiab tsheb yog nyob rau hauv txoj kev loj hlob, thiab tuam ntxhab nyiaj txiag yuav tsum tshwm sim. Kev loj hlob, tab sis qhov paj npoo tag nrho yog tsis zoo. Lub homogenization ntawm cov khoom, overcapacity thiab weak bargaining zog nyob rau hauv lub saw saw tau coj mus rau ib tug tseem ceeb poob hauv profit ntawm lub cev hluav taws xob hluav taws xob tuam ntxhab; cov peev hauv kev tsim cov cuab yeej graphitization ntawm cov ntaub ntawv anode yuav mus txuas ntxiv, thiab qhov kev lag luam kuj yuav muaj kev nce nqi hauv kev overcapacity. Qhov teeb meem no yuav raug txo kom tsawg; lithium roj teeb khoom tshem tawm thiab cov mergers thiab acquisitions yuav ntxiv mus. Vim yog cov qauv neeg txawv ntawm cov neeg siv roj teeb khoom sib txawv ntawm cov khoom siv roj ntsha ntawm cov khoom lag luam hauv cov theem pib ntawm txoj kev loj hlob, cov khoom lag luam khoom me me muaj nyob rau hauv tus neeg tsis pom zoo hauv cov qauv qhua tuaj noj mov, thiab cov twj ntawm cov roj teeb lithium yuav zoo tuaj; Khoom homogenization yog loj heev. Thaum tsis muaj kev tsim kho tshiab nyob rau hauv xyoo tas los no, them poob haujlwm ntawm cov khw yuav fim sib txig sib luag.
Nyiaj pab
Ping Tus Tshawb Fawb Tshawb Pom Zoo Tshawb Fawb qhia tias tom qab ze li kaum xyoo ntawm txoj kev loj hlob, lub tuam txhab tshiab lub zog tsheb tsheb tsim tau tsim rau ib qho nqi ntawm 100 billion yuan. Nyob rau hauv 2017, kev tsim thiab muag khoom tau txog 800,000 units, nce ntawm ntau tshaj 50% xyoo-rau-lub xyoo. Nyob rau lub Kaum Ib Hlis Ntuj xyoo 2018, nws tau tshaj ib vam xees. . Raws li qhov tseem ceeb ntawm 2025 lub xeev txoj cai tswj kev lag luam, lub tuam txhab tshiab kev lag luam tshiab muaj kev lag luam tshiab yog muaj lub caij nyoog tseem ceeb ntawm kev qeeb qeeb, kom muaj nuj nqis. Tom qab xyoo 2020, nws yuav usher nyob rau hauv lub sijhawm ntawm parity tom qab qhov kev pab cuam subsidy.
Cov phau ntawv Blue yog kwv yees hais tias txij xyoo 2018 txog 2020, lub zog tshiab lub tsheb tshiab thiab kev muag khoom yuav nce mus txog 1.1 lab, 1.6 lab thiab 2.1 lab, feem ntau, thiab muaj peev xwm ntawm cov roj teeb muaj peev xwm mus txog 50 GWh, 79GWh thiab 110GWh. Txoj kev poob qis rau cov nqi hluav taws xob thiab cov kev sib txuas zuj zus nyob rau ntau yam ntawm hluav taws xob tsheb yuav nce lub zog ntawm kev caij tsheb kauj vab. Nrog txoj kev txhim kho ntawm cov roj teeb zog ntawm lub xeev cov kev pabcuam hauv lub xeev, kev lag luam "tus thawj coj" tau qhia txog kev ua haujlwm ntawm kev lag luam, qhov kev lag luam R & D yog qhov tseem ceeb, thiab cov kev sib koom ua lag luam yuav cia siab ntxiv.
Tsis tas li ntawd, txoj kev tshem tawm cov nyiaj pabcuam pheej yau yuav coj txoj kev lag luam tshiab lub zog tsheb mus rau kev ua lag luam thiab kev sib txig sib luag. Nws yuav tsum tau hais tias cov nyiaj pabcuam tshiab rau cov tsheb tshiab yuav ua rau poob qis qis 2019. Nws yuav tsum muaj kev ruaj siab thiab kev sib zog ua haujlwm siab zog yuav tau txais kev txhawb ntxiv.
Thaum pib ntawm lub Xya Hli 2018, qhov nruab nrab roj noj ntawm suav neeg caij tsheb tuam tsheb thiab lub zog tshiab lub tsheb cov ntsiab lus tswj kev lag luam tau pib, thiab lub "ob lub ntsiab lus" kev sib hloov ntawm cov neeg tsav tsheb tsheb tau pib.
Phau ntawv xiav qhia tias cov ntsiab lus ntawm "double points" yog los txhawb cov neeg muaj lub tshuab fais fab ntawm cov khoom hluav taws xob. Tam sim no, qhov kev faib ua feem ntawm "ob lub ntsiab lus" txoj cai rau lub tuam txhab tsheb tam sim no, txawm tias nws yog ib qho lag luam tus kheej los yog ib qho kev sib koom ua lag luam, yog tias tsis tau yuav cov ntsiab lus, -2020. Nws tsis tau txiav txim siab tias yav tom ntej cov txheej txheem yuav ua rau kev nyuaj siab los ntawm kev txaus siab los ua kom muaj qhov feem pua ntawm cov ntsiab lus tshiab zog hauv cov "double points" txoj cai, thiab yuam kom cov lag luam yuav ntxiv nyiaj rau cov khoom tshiab thiab tsim kho kev tsim kho ntawm cov saw hlau.
